Silicon Valley Redneck

But... but... ya GOTTA have a license!

As Google shows off the latest and goofiest iteration of its Kroton-headed self-driving car, the world asks the single most important question:

What sort of license should be required to ride in the left* front seat?

Really, now: what kind of license is required to ride in a taxi?  Or a chauffeured limousine?  Or to take the bus?

If the car is actually self-driving, why should the occupant(s) need any license at all?

 

* Or right, according to national preference.

In which I attempt to pass the ideological Turing test

There's this new development, see, in stem cell work.  Involves cloning a patient's own cells:

 

... the researchers used healthy oocytes from donors, removed the eggs’ nuclei and substituted a nucleus from the somatic cell of the adult patients. The cells were then ‘jump started’ by electric pulse into developing like a normal embryo.

At the blastocyst stage, the scientists were able to derive stable embryonic stem cell lines ...

All of which sounds wonderful, from a medical perspective.

But here's the thing.  If one grants the premise that a human blastocyst is a person*, then this is an abomination.  Such a person would be as innocent as anyone could conceivably be, and sacrificing an innocent to extend the life of an adult would be a grotesque form of... vampirism, maybe?

If throwing virgins into volcanoes actually prevented eruptions, would it be an acceptable practice?

Heck, I don't have the answers.  I just see that there's a great big question here, and a possibility of sliding into the most appalling moral degeneracy.

 

* I don't, incidentally; hence the title.  However, I have no scientific nor theological grounds for denying it, either.

Panic! Doom! Fear! Fire! Foes! Deadly EMP attack!

Yes, the EMP fearmongers are at it again, boldly asserting that a small nuke set off above the middle of the U.S. could destroy everything electrical... with new added claim that the ensuing collapse would kill 90% of the population.

Er.

Yeah, knocking out civilization is serious stuff; couple decades back, I took a look at the implications of evacuating the cities ahead of a nuclear war, and quickly concluded that fallout would be a much smaller threat than lack of sanitation for a large displaced population.

But:

Let's take a look at this "one little nuke" thing, shall we?  Starfish Prime was 1.4 megatons, not exactly little.  It was significantly disruptive 900 miles away.  The one bomb in the middle needs to do a lot of damage at the coasts; call it a 1500 mile radius.  So, assuming we're dealing with an inverse square law here (and not an inverse cube or something), we need to multiply by (1500/900)², so about 4 megatons.  But!  That's to inflict the level of damage at the coasts that Starfish Prime inflicted on Hawaii, not to wipe out the electrical grid, backup systems, car electrical systems, and all that other stuff.  So, we probably need another order of magnitude, to get enough energy for a proper kill.

Which says out hypothetical enemy needs Царь-бомба, or something darn near.  Plus a delivery system to deliver 20 tons or so of bomb to a point a couple of hundred miles above Omaha.  Which is a damn big ICBM.  Smaller than a Saturn V, but... well... somehow I don't think the NorKs* will have one anytime soon.  And we'd sure notice them testing it.  Not to mention the seismic activity from the giant H-bomb tests.

And, yeah, the bomb and its delivery system would need testing.  Because it's not just rocket science; it's rocket plumbing.  And when you strike at a king....

None of which is to say that we shouldn't be hardening the electrical grid, having decentralized emergency supplies, and otherwise preparing for disruptive events whether hostile or natural.  But I call BS on this particular bit of fearmongering.

* The Russians may have both the bomb and the delivery system (it's just at the upper limit of Протон-М's capacity).  But Tsar Vladimir is ambitious, not insane.  Launch an ICBM from Kazakhstan to deliver a huge nuke over Nebraska, and, regardless of who's in the Oval Office at the moment, you just don't bet against several Russian cities becoming fields of rubble within the hour.

Another one of them definitional problems

Now making the rounds: federal court rules that APIs can be copyrighted.

Which is insane.

Yes, the API documents fall under copyright, obviously.  But the API itself is a functional specification, not an expression of an idea.  It's arguably patentable, for the limited term of a patent (and v2.0, v3.7, and so on each bring a new patent term for the changes).  If it's copyrightable, then so is a list of patent claims, and every patent is protected by copyright, with an effectively unlimited term.

But, then, using the Java API was an epically dumb move; despite all the revisions and improvements over the years (well, maybe not all, it's a couple years since I looked closely at it), the language is fundamentally flawed, and the libraries are bloated, cumbersome, and nigh-unusable.  The only excuse for using Java is to jump on Sun's (now 'Orrible's) bandwagon; Sun did some powerful strong marketing back in the day.

(OK, so up until recently, if you wanted to write a little thingy that ran inside the user's browser, and would work on any user's computer [write once, run anywhere, and all that], you were pretty much stuck with Java.  Only that's never actually worked; I've encountered many Java applets that presumably worked on the authors' machines, but were totally FUBAR on mine.  That's still no excuse for using it on a server, or a handset, or an embedded device, ....)

Update: David Beige elaborates on the problem.

On the checking of privilege

Now Patterico's linked to one of these things, noting how pointless it is.

Had I rather more idle time and inspiration, I might throw together a privilege-check quiz aimed at those most likely to invoke the catchphrase.

A few sample questions:

• Have you ever had a job from which you could be fired?
• Have you ever had a job providing a product or service which the customers could choose to buy, or not, without compulsion?
• Have you ever had a job at which your performance could be objectively evaluated?
• If you lost your temper, would your behavior be automatically excused on the basis of your sex or ethnicity?

Anyway, you get the idea.  There are plenty of people out there in real positions of privilege, often acting on behalf of, and shielded by, the State.  Those who throw around casual accusations of privilege are often members of this group, or aspire to membership.

The idea that yer basic working stiff is privileged brings to mind an old Jewish joke....

Stupidity's always been a capital offense.

These past few months, it's been the trial of that Pistorius guy, who gets an eternity of headlines because he's a celebrity of some sort.  But we've heard the story before, with minor variations.

And, any time I hear that defense?  The old "I shot my {wife | girlfriend | favorite goat} by mistake, thinking she was an intruder in the night" line?

My first thought is: Dude.  You're far too stupid to be out without a keeper.

And the only way anyone could get away with that is to draw a jury made up entirely of people who've never thought through a basic home-defense scenario.

Let's try this on for size: you're in bed, and hear someone moving around out in the living room.  How do you respond?

• Grab the gun from under your pillow, creep down the hall, and blast the first thing that moves?
• Poke the other side of the bed, and if it's empty, assume your partner is the one moving around?

Really, now: if you're going to keep a weapon handy, you should have at least a rudimentary plan for threat identification.  Come right down to it, you should have such a plan anyway, armed or not.  Because otherwise you'll be permanently in either Condition White or Condition Red, and neither of those is a good place to be.

Not sure about the 'scientific' part, either

Article here, found via Slashdot:

US Is an Oligarchy Not a Democracy, says Scientific Study

Um.  It's supposed to be a republic, not a democracy.  Not the same thing.  A true democracy is not consistent with a Constitution that constrains government powers, because

Constitutional provisions that curtail the legislative power to govern in this area unquestionably do more harm than good.

(My, how useful that magic phrase is!)

So, try this one: it's an oligarchy, not a republic.  This is even worse, because the government is supposed to be subject to well-defined, published, and well-understood laws, and in fact it has a longstanding practice of interpreting those laws out of existence when they don't fit the agenda of the ruling class.

And just watch the collectivists (I should know; I was one of them, back in my college days) proclaim that their agenda is what the Median Voter wants, and that we need even bigger government, plus some form of divine intervention, to make it happen.

In fact, big-money oligarchy is the inevitable result of centralized government with power to mess with the economy.  Were the Tenth Amendment in effect, there would be little incentive for businessmen to buy the federal government.

It's not just Intuit, of course.

Yeah, so, surprise, surprise: Intuit, purveyors of fine Turbot Axes, have been engaging in rent-seeking, helping block changes to the U.S. tax system that would make taxes simpler and filing easier.

But looks at the dire consequences all around, should the tax system be simplified!  The complexity creates all those jobs for tax accountants, tax preparers, tax attorneys, financial planners with expertise in tax avoidance, and of course IRS employees and their state counterparts.

If it suddenly got simple, all those people would be out of jobs!  Think of the terrible blow to the economy!

Big Government: breaking windows for prosperity since... er... the Dawn of Man?

Being There

(Not related to Chauncey Gardiner.  Or is it?  I ramble, you decipher.)

At WaPo, Jennifer Rubin quotes Elliott Abrams:

The argument seems to be that peace is possible because Kerry has relationships with leaders, Kerry is trusted, Kerry was in the Senate for 30 years, Kerry chaired the Foreign Relations Committee, and Kerry was on the White House lawn when Rabin shook hands with Arafat. So our job is to have faith in him, and if we believe that peace is possible, it will come.

Abrams calls this the "Tinkerbell Effect", and follows it in one direction.

I'll just go off on a tangent here, and point to the Being There effect.  Kerry Was In All The Right Places.  Just as Hillary Was In All The Right Places.  Having been in all the right places, and in the same room with Important People, makes one competent, does it not?

By which logic, of course, hanging out at filksings makes me a songwriter.  And associating with retired soldiers makes me an expert military adviser.

Unfortunately, this sort of competence-by-association seems to be common in the wonderful world of social networking, which dominates politics (regardless of party) and business (outside, perhaps, of a few fields in which actual competence can readily be assessed*).

And that's how we end up with the political class we have.  And the management class**.

 

* It's easy to screen, e.g., actors and concert violinists for competence.  Some companies try to screen engineers before hiring them; I've occasionally been involved in the process, from both sides.  But a CEO?  You'd think his track record would matter, but that appears not to be the case, given the walking disaster areas who keep finding new employment even as the companies in their care implode.

** I know my management skills are basically nonexistent.  Managers are highly confident in their skills, because they've been to the right schools and taken the right classes; the concept of outcome-based evaluation does not apply, so there's no cause for doubt.

Now, here's an exercise in irrelevance

Mr. Justice Stevens proposes to insert a few words into the Second Amendment, thus:

“A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms when serving in the Militia shall not be infringed.”

Now, this goes to the heart of the collective-rights interpretation of the Second Amendment... and the reason this interpretation is absurd in the first place.

According to the Collectivists, the Second Amendment is only meant to prevent the Federal Government from disarming the various State militias.  But, since the State militia powers were already spelled out in the body of the constitution, this makes no sense, unless one believes that those powers might only apply to some sort of unarmed militia, whatever that might be*.

So: were we to make the proposed change, what, exactly, would the New! Improved! Second Amendment mean?

1. The Federal Government is forbidden to disarm itself?
2. Soldiers on active duty are allowed to carry weapons?

OK, so interpretation (2) is already being violated.  So this totally makes sense, right?  The whole purpose of the Second Amendment is to prevent military bases becoming victim-disarmament zones?

 

And here's a happy thought:

Constitutional provisions that curtail the legislative power to govern in this area unquestionably do more harm than good.

For any currently fashionable value of "this area", right?

 

Considering some of the logic that comes out of the courts, maybe we should pick judges at random out of phone books.  Hey, if we have that Constitutional Convention, there's an amendment I'd like to suggest**!

 

* I suppose I shouldn't laugh; considering some of the amazing feats of sophistry demonstrated by the Court over the past couple of centuries, "unarmed militia" might not be much of a stretch.

** Along with picking legislators the same way.  And going back to picking juries that way, as opposed to carefully screening them.

Worst-case scenario

So, as the Tsar decides whether and when to invade Estonia (a member of NATO), what do we think will happen?  History branches...

 

Easy case: NATO does nothing.  Russian forces roll across the border, crush any opposition, and bring Estonia back into the Empire.

Result: NATO is discredited, and the Pax Americana is unambiguously over, dead, and buried.  Western Europe realizes that it's every-nation-for-itself out there, and all nations great and small get busy arming to the teeth and preparing for war, as has traditionally been the situation in Europe*.

Strong NATO case: NATO forces deploy along Estonia's border, armed and authorized to shoot back if attacked - or, heaven forfend, to defend the border.

Result, option A: Vlad gets the impression the West is serious for a change, and there's no attack.  After a couple of years, there's a popular perception that the whole thing has been a huge waste of money that could better have been spent on distributing baskets of flowers to the homeless of Bazouges.

Result, option B: The Russians invade anyway, and there's a shooting war.  Which may or may not end quickly, and be confined to a small area....

Knowing-our-politicians case: NATO forces deploy near Estonia's border, on a strictly peacekeeping mission, without ammunition.

Result: Since everyone knows the NATO forces left their ammunition at home, the Russians waltz across the border, round up the NATO troops, and transport them to the nearest exit.  Now we're back to "Easy case", except that NATO is not merely discredited but humiliated, and many people in member nations are Very, Very Angry, at the same time that those same nations are gearing up for war with who-knows-whom.

 

Way I see it, all paths other than a credible defense of Estonia lead to a big war, sooner or not-much-later.  And the credible defense of Estonia could lead to war sooner, if it's not credible enough.

Get the impression I'm not feeling real optimistic about Europe's prospects in the next few years?

Never, ever make a rule you're nor prepared to enforce, nor sign a treaty you're not prepared to live up to.  It just creates trouble, and makes things Your Problem that weren't before.

 

* Afterthought: They'll also negotiate a complex web of overlapping and contradictory mutual-defense treaties, to replace NATO.  That way, once some dangerous clown cuts the ribbon on the festivities, everyone will be obligated to join in, on one side or another.

 

Disclaimer: Anyone who takes my advice on matters geopolitical, diplomatic, or military must be even crazier than I am.

Did someone mention Copybook Headings?

Currently on the Kindle, for those odd bits of time: Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds.

Reading through the first chapter, regarding the Mississippi Scheme, I notice... well, first, of course, is that PTerry must be familiar with the tale, 'cause it starts with the preposterous premise of a notorious international scoundrel being put in charge of the brand-new National Bank.  But, once past that obvious absurdity, things start looking rather less Discworld and rather more Ben-Bernank.  (And Nixon, and FDR, and all the rest of the familiar players.)

Now on to the South-Sea Bubble, and... wait, haven't we seen this movie before?  I mean, again?

Factoring in something I read a few years back regarding Tulipomania (not sure what aspects of that are covered in this book; that's the next chapter), and I'm beginning to see a pattern here.

A grand economic scam driven, or at least enabled, by the rich and powerful begets many lesser scams of similar (if sometimes more blatant) nature.  Little scams fall apart quickly, ruining a few people; the big scam can go on for years, before collapsing and ruining a nation.

But I'm sure that could never happen here.

Ponderment: occupational qualifications

Let's have a look at some trades, and the consequences of a mistake.

• If a surgeon makes a mistake, the patient may die.
• If an aeronautical engineer makes a mistake, a few hundred people may die.
• Likewise, an airline pilot.
• If a civil engineer makes a mistake, thousands may die (poorly designed office tower, large apartment complex, or similar, in the event of a fire, earthquake, or other sudden complication).
• If a social engineer (politician, diplomat, or central planner) makes a mistake, millions may die (WWI, WWII, Great Leap Forward, Holodomor, ...).

Now, look back at that list and ponder the academic background typical for each trade, and the occupational training and licensing requirements.  And consider which courses of study have rigid standards, and which are subject to grade inflation.

This ponderment brought to you by The Silicon Graybeard and Coyote Blog.

In the shadow of the Vogon Constructor Fleet

Not far from SVR Central is a slightly-upmarket light industrial park, the Fair Oaks Business Park.  I'd vaguely considered it in early 2013, when I was contemplating leasing some work space locally.

There's still a For Lease sign out front.  But... the parking lot has gotten awfully vacant of late.  Like, in the middle of a Monday afternoon, no cars to be seen on the side I noticed on the way past.

Apparently there are some new Projects in the works, and that business park is one of those scheduled for demolition.  Hundreds of new apartments!  And dozens fewer small-business spaces.  Great.

Silicon Valley: where dreams go to die.

Marketing ploy

You see?  Ukraine didn't join our Club K^®, and just look what happened!

All you small nations in Eurasia want to join Club K^®.  Now.

Because you've got a nice country there.  And we wouldn't want anything to happen to it.

Club K^® systems may contain Asimov^TM features that prevent use against friendly targets.  Russia^SM is your friend, now and forever.  Club K^® may not protect against peacekeeping operations, internal troop movements, and activities carried out entirely within Russia's legitimate borders.  Other terms and conditions may apply.  Batteries sold separately.

Copper for a rumor, sir or madam...

Well, now there's open speculation on a notion I had a couple of days back: that perhaps MH370 was stolen by its pilot, either for political reasons or in a particularly brazen case of barratry in the high airs.  Which seems to fit the sequence of events better'n any other explanation I've heard (other than the ones involving space aliens or time travelers).

And it could have been taken to the Andaman Islands, providing a Sherlock Holmes tie-in!

Anyway, forget the passengers' cellphones.  Thing to do is, watch the pilot's eBay account.  If he starts advertising a used airliner, or the safe return of one passenger or another?  That'll be a big clue.

Sensationalism

Three years since that incident in Japan, there's this:

To be precise, three reactors had outright meltdowns or, more correctly, melt-throughs. One, Reactor No. 4, broke beyond repair and posed further catastrophe. Two others simply stopped dead. Within hours, one of the melt-throughs exploded, spewing lethal radioactive waste into the air, soil, underground water veins and, steadily, into the Pacific. Some eighteen thousand and five hundred souls died that cold March day. Many of the dead remain missing even now.

Nice juxtaposition there.  Nuke plants broken, 18500 people dead.  'Course, the body count where actual nuclear power plants were involved was, if memory, serves, one: a worker hit by falling debris.

Onward!

Why were the spent rods—so many of them—stored on top of the reactors? Who at General Electric was responsible for that design innovation? Was it conceived for expediency, to save money, or from an attitude of utter hubris against the force of nature?

Or maybe... just maybe... the short-term storage pools were placed right next to the top of the reactor (where the used fuel comes out) to minimize handling and exposure of fresh, high-level waste...?  Nah.  Too implausible.  Must be some nefarious reason.

During all that time, invisible odorless particles with unspeakable consequences have been descending over the region every time rain or snow falls.

ZOMG!  Radioactive COOTIES!  Wait, is this the H. P. Lovecraft memorial writing competition?

Man!  This whole thing needs a righteous fisking by someone who really speaks nuke power and isn't trying to eat his lunch.  Maybe I'll refer it to the W.O.R.M.

Update: W.O.R.M. sighting!

Afterthought: Hoover doesn't usally publish stuff that sucks like this.  I think that's normally left to the Electrolux Foundation.

Sanity: we've heard of it.

Or, in this case: not.

Seems an 18-year-old EMT trainee is up on felony charges for maybe having the potential to carry out a mass shooting at his high school.

With a pocketknife.

Locked in his car.

Uh... guys?  What's the mass of a proton in your universe?

Meaningless information

From USA Today:

Families: Cellphones of missing passengers still ring

Before reading further, I put my cellphone in airplane mode (i.e., not communicating with the network) and called it from the land-line.  Straight to voicemail, same as if it'd been busy.

Presumably, other networks might handle it differently, especially for long-distance calls.  So, a call to an unreachable cellphone might "ring" for a while before the network gives up.  And, of course, voicemail will continue to work just fine.

The article does go on to quote experts who point this out.

It's not quite the same as old-style land lines, which will happily continue to ring as long as you'll wait, even if the phone and the house containing it have been whisked away to the land of Kansas.  In this case, (a) the network will never detect the unreachability of the phone, and (b) the home answering machine, having likewise been whisked away, will never pick up.

Drawing lines in the sand

Ya think maybe President Beeblebrox has delusions of being Bugs Bunny?

Somehow, I don't see the Tsar obligingly playing the role of Yosemite Sam.