Oh, noes! When the computers get smarter than us, they'll decide humans are superfluous and eradicate us! Maybe they'll keep a few of us in zoos, for robots to come look at!
Well, it makes a good movie. Or a bad one, as the case may be. But...
OK, this kinda congealed as I was commenting on a post at BRM.
Part of the background to a sci-fi epic I'm not writing is this set of assumptions:
- Current efforts in AI will not lead to true artificial intelligence; the underlying methods are a dead end.
- The various sorts of pseudo-"intelligence", while not rising to the true intelligence even of a puppy, will nonetheless become better at most skilled trades than all but the top humans in those trades.
- With skilled trades (medicine, law, aviation, and so on) practiced at above-average level by machines, there will be no opportunity for humans to practice those trades and attain the top levels, where the machines can't reach.
There are various other assumptions, some of which I'd need to discuss with a rabbi if I were actually going to write the dang novel. But those are the key ones. (The others mainly relate to true AI, developed some centuries in the future. One is somewhat borrowed from Red Dwarf*.)
Now consider advanced autopilots. Human pilots are still legally required in the cockpit, and will be for the foreseeable future, but we can pretty well see a future in which all routine operation of commercial aircraft is handled by the computers. And why not? The computers will soon be capable of flying the plane better than most human pilots. And when a situation arises that's beyond the computer's competence? You hope the human in command is Sully, but it's more likely to be the crew of AF447. And, with routine operation automated, the only real experience the humans will be getting will be simulator time, while cockpit time will lull them into state of complacency. Eventually, all the top pilots will have retired, and there'll be little point retaining the ones who are no more capable than the machines.
OK, let's extend this to skilled trades in general. How many specialists can you think of who could perfectly well be replaced by an expert system with some combination of natural-language communication, vision, and manipulators? I mean, for routine stuff, not for those special "there are only three people in the world who can do this, so get on the waiting list and hope one of them will get to you within your lifetime" matters.
Doctors, lawyers, farmers, carpenters?
Extrapolate a generation into the future. All the humans who used to practice these trades have long since retired, and most have died. The trades have morphed into automation-oriented forms that no one comprehends. And, of course, all the machines that do this stuff are controlled by cartels, with the possible exception of some outdated ones that have been salvaged and are being operated illegally outside the system.
And now the next Carrington Event comes along. Or a flurry of cyberattacks, or EMP. We're back in the Stone Age, minus the skills that enabled everyday humans to survive in the Stone Age.
It's an AI Apocalypse, only without any hint of, nor need for, malevolence on the part of the AI.
* Which didn't take it back far enough, nor elaborate on the reason. There was one episode in which the ship's computer had its intelligence boosted beyond recognition, which resulted in its life expectancy dropping precipitously. OK, so maybe there's some mysterious reason. Or... just a thought, just now... consider a ship's computer with an IQ of 6000, which is what that computer was supposed to have at the beginning of the show. What's it gonna do with all that intelligence? Routine operations & maintenance don't require IQ points, just lots of little specialized computers. That leaves the intelligent computer pondering the imponderable, unscrewing the inscrutable, and descending into boredom and madness. Gotta be a general principle here, involving level of intelligence, amount of input available, and ability to manipulate the world at large.
Afterthoughts:
Methinks a lot of the trouble we're seeing in the West is the result of intelligence having no real challenges to overcome. There being no existential threats in everyday life, people need to manufacture them. See the result: War, Famine, Pestilence, Death, and Madness are on the rise.
... Which ties into some further background of that novel I'm not writing. There's an aspect I suspect wouldn't work: a planet kinda-sorta like Israel, only not surrounded by enemies. Would it be like Israel, only prospering in peace? Or are the enemies necessary? Put half a dozen Jews in a room for an evening. Now extrapolate to planetary scale, and a few centuries. (This probably works for any other tribe of humans, and for most other mammals for that matter.)
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