The Israelis did it! And it was a tactical nuke!
Er, no. Are we to believe that the Israelis set fire to the warehouse, waited until there'd been a medium-sized explosion and a bunch of small ones, and then hit the conflagration with a missile? Or they didn't start the fire, but as long as the building was on fire they used a missile on it anyway? Either way, it makes no sense.
Also, that final explosion was way too big for a deliverable conventional warhead*, so....
No, it wasn't a tac nuke. Definitely a chemical explosion, from the look of it - or rather, if I'm seeing things correctly in one of the vids, several chemical explosions very close together, consistent with either a munitions dump or just a warehouse full of piles of explosive material. (A nuke blast does happen in multiple stages, but on a sub-millisecond time scale, and everything prior to the fission reaction is tiny by comparison, so you wouldn't see the ripple-boom effect.)
So what was it? I believe the official story to be at least partly true: there was a huge amount of blasting-grade prilled ammonium nitrate stored in that warehouse.
Now, contrary to what many Internet windbags will tell you, ammonium nitrate is not fiddly, sensitive, dangerous stuff. It's nigh-impossible to get an explosion out of it under ordinary conditions; as a blasting agent, it's combined with fuel oil at point of use to sensitize it and increase the yield, and even then it takes not just a blasting cap but a sizable booster charge to set it off reliably.
But... if it's contaminated with any sort of combustible material, including soot from a nearby fire... if it's stored in sufficiently huge heaps and slowly roasted... it is possible for a shipload of the stuff to detonate, with city-flattening results.
So, just having a shipload of ammonium nitrate stored in a flammable warehouse, and the warehouse being accidentally ignited, is a plausible explanation. If Hezbollah was also storing large quantities of real explosives in that building, or had been dabbling in sensitized ammonium nitrate products? Bonus danger, but not necessary to explain the observed effects.
Now, as to why there was a confiscated shipload of ammonium nitrate warehoused for years in close proximity to a civilian population? I think we can assume official incompetence to be a significant factor; some have hinted at various forms of corruption also being involved.
Update: Excellent vid here explaining how this fits the profile of an accidental explosion of improperly stored ammonium nitrate set off by a fire.
* Making reasonable assumptions about available delivery systems. We're talking on the order of 2 million kilograms of payload, here. Which... nope. Not even with a suborbital Falcon Heavy, if I'm reading the specs right. Using an S-IC as a tactical ballistic missile? I don't think so. And the launch would have been really hard to hide.
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