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Monday, 27 April 2020

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I don't think you need to test everyone but we ought to test a LOT of the people, people from all over the country. It's hard to make accurate guesses without good data.

A large random sample from all over would, in principle, be a good thing - preferably testing both for current infection and for antibodies - BUT we need to know, with decent accuracy, what the limitations of the test are.
If we don't know what inaccuracies the test and the associated processes introduce, we'll get a large amount of data but it'll be wrong. Which is pretty much where we are now: lots of data, with enough contradictions that most of it must be wrong.
Now, here's a cute idea: are there frozen blood samples, from whatever sources, spanning the past few years? Might be interesting to run the antibody test on them - if it comes up positive, either the virus has been around longer than we think or there's something wrong with the test.

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