...well, TBD; it's hard to predict these things with any accuracy.
Still, another alarming point to ponder:
A few years ago, my friend and occasional colleague Boris was sent off to India on a consulting contract, to work with a product-development team in some place that was supposed to be India's Answer to Silicon Valley.
From the tales he came back with, the upstart region had all the obvious necessities: first-rate universities and technical schools, bright young graduates of same, access to capital... just the stuff, right?
Except that: Silicon Valley (as was) grew up over the course of several decades, and had three generations of engineers active. The overseas imitations, being new creations, had only the younger generation, and lacked the graybeards who'd seen all the mistakes (and made most of them themselves) and could avoid making the usual mistakes this time around. Hence, the complex products designed by the teams of newly-minted engineers were pretty much doomed.
Given this (and this was about a decade ago), Silicon Valley ought to retain its advantage in the world for another generation - call it two or three more decades - just on the basis of having the graybeards around, which those other high-tech centers lacked.
Alas, the situation is changing. The point was brought home to me at a social gathering this week, when someone noted that all the new tech jobs in the Valley are for twentysomethings who work 12-hour days for relatively low pay. The graybeards, unless already well ensconced in stable companies, are finding themselves unemployable and wandering off in search of greener pastures (literally, in some cases).
And so the local advantage evaporates, and the Valley becomes just another international urban center filled with bright, overworked youngsters who lack the depth of experience to develop complex products and bring them to market.
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